Instead, he was actually looking at a mortgage payment of up to $4,200 a month, depending on the days rate. In its December 2022 monthly report, Realtor.com said its monthly housing data showed a housing market thats continuing to cool, with the number of homes for sale up by 54.7% compared to the same time last year. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. If youre looking to buy or sell real estate in Utah, you want to ensure youre working with a real estate agent who can help you navigate the rapidly changing conditions of the local housing markets. Several people claim that hedge funds, investors, and cash buyers are to blame for this lopsidedness. This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. , The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. -0.63% home value decrease month over month. However, because of the growing number of migrants in the state, Utah is now faced with what experts say is a severe imbalance in its housing market. Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Scotty Fletcher, left, and his partner Joseph Branca hang out in their living room in the apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Even during the 2008 Recession, Utah felt the pain but, comparatively speaking, suffered a less deep economic hit. The beautiful Rocky Mountains are our backyard, giving us an unlimited opportunity for outdoor experiences of any kind! Privacy . However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. In June 2020, the median sales price across Utah averaged $363,600 and has now jumped to $580,000. A low or shrinking percentage of homes selling above list price suggests that the market is becoming less competitive. Just to give you an idea, Utah Association of Realtors president Dave Robison said that in-migration is hugely impacting Utah real estate. Heres why, Buying a house? Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Utah housing prices down from spring peak but theyre still higher than last year. While the market in Utah is feeling a correction similar to the rest of the Nation, it weathered the 2008 recession relatively well and is expected to maintain a strong housing market. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. The latest housing data shows the median priced home in Utah's most populated county increased to $550,000 in the third quarter of 2021. Windermere Living While that remains to be seen, whats clear is that demographic tailwinds will keep the demand for housing robust this decade. One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. Historical Utah real estate data and trends are included below the latest update. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Utah Housing Market- Trends and Predictions for 2022, Preston Hicks Real Estate Group - JMG Utah, What does exclusive right to sell mean? In addition, inflation and the looming specter of a recession are also taking a toll on Utah residents buying power. First-time homebuyers will need to be successful in the 2022 housing market if we are going to see the homeownership rate begin to climb again. Oakland Real Estate Market: To Invest or Not to Invest? While interest rates remain high, the coming year will likely see continued cooling of the housing market in Utah; however, lack of supply will buffer most markets. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. Utahs housing market has a tight supply, and while we may see prices decrease somewhat, its not likely to experience a significant decline in housing values. READ REDFIN'S, Do not sell or share my personal information. 2022 housing market forecast million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. From peak-to-trough, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on interest rates. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. After prices peaked in May, Salt Lake Countys median single family home price hit $650,000. He has taken his life experiences working with people and transitioned into helping families and individuals make the very best decisions when it comes to real estate. The rising inventory, coupled with listing price growth dropping below 10% for the first time in a year, offers some positives for homebuyers, Realtor.com stated in its report, as they may have more options and more time to make a decision on a home purchase.. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. How far will they fall? Therefore, the Utah housing market is to be expected to slow down. Year over year, prices rose in four markets but pulled back in the other three. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Price growth rates, especially in 2021, were nothing short of astounding. Buyers finally have market power. The slate of speakers all sought to help bring clarity to a market that they said has largely been fraught with volatility and uncertainty as mortgage rates, some days hovering around 7%, have squeezed buyers and have brought a rapid end to what had been over two years of a blazing hot market. 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. This was marginally below the rate of the prior year but impressive all the same. With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. When is the best time to buy a house in Utah? At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. . Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. As of November, that figure was down to $569,000 14% lower than the May peak but still 4% higher than in November of 2021. The cops came and busted everyone.. Home prices in Utah were down 3.0% year-over-year in January. The Utah housing market has experienced consistent growth in real estate throughout the past five years, but it started to take off in mid-2020. Theyre both confident Utahs job market is strong enough to avoid sweeping foreclosures and that housing demand will continue due to the states rapid growth and pervasive home shortage. Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). Well, perhaps I cantAlthough based on facts, I believe I can. Please note that while we have included updated and accurate Airbnb data from Mashvisor, each city and county have different rules and regulations about short-term rentals. Homes on the market: 11,172. Wood and Eskic expect a staggering 40% to 50% drop in the number of new homes produced in Utah over the next two years. But by the end of the year, well stabilize and well be flat, Wood said. Boating in Utah can be an unmatched experience. 2024 will be better, Jim Wood, one of Utahs leading housing experts, told the crowd gathered at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City for the Salt Lake Board of Realtors 2023 housing forecast Friday. Our Utah real estate market data is updated quarterly to aid in your real estate forecasts. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. All Rights Reserved. The Utah housing market has been following similar trends as the ones observed nationwide, including a white-hot real estate market characterized by a low inventory and high demand for housing. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. TREC:Info About Brokerage Services,Consumer Protection Notice. He expects buyers and sellers will step back and wait for the dust to settle, many of them locked in at low, 3% mortgage rates that helped send the nations housing market into a frenzy in 2020 and 2021. Real estate investors number by the thousands in the US. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. The U.S. housing market is going through what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has called a difficult correction and a reset as it comes off the tail end of a pandemic frenzy fueled housing bubble. In its fight with record inflation levels throughout 2022, the Fed made a series of aggressive borrowing rate hikes, which translated to a spike in mortgage rates that priced or spooked buyers out of the market. The strong demand and limited supply of home inventory will push against price declines and keep home prices relatively stable over time. A year from now whoevers right has to shave their beard off.. I think buyers will adjust, for one thing, Wood said, pointing to a chart that he said showed its very rare in Utah for housing prices to decline.. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. Looking ahead to 2023 and what it will bring to the housing market, two of Utahs leading housing experts are respectfully disagreeing with each other. Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Based on Redfin calculations of home data from MLS and/or public records. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. Some buy-and-hold while others enter the rental market for passive income. Salt Lake City, Utah Just like Utah peaches Forecast home price change by May 2022: 23.5% Local professional: Dave Robison, broker and owner of goBE Realty, and former president of Utah Association of Realtors and Salt Lake Board of Realtors What makes the Salt Lake City market poised for growth? In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. The Utah housing markets that are most overvalued are Ogden, Provo, and Salt Lake City. However, there is no denying that the rapid increase in interest rates, with more likely in the work before inflation reaches a targeted rate of 2%, has significantly affected it. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. In addition, people are moving to Utah because of the family-friendly environment, high-ranking school systems, and endless outdoor activities available along with the National parks. Housing market predictions for 2023 vary, depending on the regional market and who you talk to, but no one is predicting a stellar year for buyers or sellers and certainly not for homebuilders. Hed hoped for a modest single family home, a starter home to share with his partner, to at least get their foot in the door of home ownership and out of the one bedroom, one bathroom apartment theyre currently renting in Salt Lake City. After a peak of the housing market in May 2022, when the Utah median home price reached a record $577,500, Utah house prices have slowly been decreasing, although they remain higher than they were the year prior. Historically low-interest rates, job growth, and pandemic conditions made Utah a highly attractive state for both homebuyers and investors. The median home price has increased from $345,000 in September 2019 to $553,500 in September 2022, with a peak of $577,500 in May 2022, representing a staggering 60.43% increase in 36 months, well above the national average. CA License #01950016. Still seemed achievable. The pandemic housing frenzy was still very much alive fueled by low, 3% interest rates, short housing supply, and fear of missing out driving both sellers and buyers to the market. All Rights Reserved, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, priced some two-thirds of Utahns out of affording the median priced home, Housing market is correcting but Utahs affordability crisis isnt going away. In Utah, because of its continued strong job economy, experts predict the states housing market to experience some turbulence in 2023 but come out strong next year. Predictions include price drops, terrible consolidation, but better buyer balance, 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, The great reset of 2022: The year the Fed had no mercy on the housing market, U.S. navigating pandemic housing bubble, Fed chairman says. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year.The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two This gives us a 23.7% combined overall growth rate This projected growth puts them ahead of other booming markets like Boise City ID, Spokane WA, and Indianapolis IN. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. Heres why, Why are house prices so high? Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. If you are using a screen reader, or having trouble reading this website, please call Redfin Customer Support for help at 1-844-759-7732. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. Mashvisor is a website that offers real estate investors access to several tools and a wide range of updated and accurate data to help make the process of finding a suitable investment property faster and easier. Homes are under construction in South Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. A dear client asked me the other day Preston, why do you love Utah? It sounds clich, but I initially answered with a questionWhat isnt there to love about Utah?. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. The average rate for 2022, based on the forecasts of seven organization . Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. Home sales: 3,219 26.7% less than a year ago. But when mortgage rates ticked up, he said it quickly became apparent that he wasnt going to be able to buy a home with, say, a $1,600 monthly mortgage payment. Will it pop or deflate?, A U.S. housing bubble is brewing. Prices, though theyre on a downward trajectory, are still up year over year by single-digit percentages at least for now. And it looks like that trend is not going to end any time soon. increase. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. Realtor.com anticipates Salt Lake City metro home-price growth will be at 8.5% and home-sales growth at 15.2% in 2022. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. Wallethub found Utah is the. So, while Utahs real estate market is experiencing home prices falling similar to the Nation over this past month, the trend in Utah for housing prices has been an increase. Given the Utah housing market forecast 2022, here are the top real estate markets any wise investor can add to their real estate portfolio. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above list. Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. Even as the cost of borrowing falls, home prices in expensive markets will probably fall a bit more to compensate for rates that will likely hold above 6% until early summer. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. When you look around at those who are not in as comfortable of a position, well, what options do they have at all?. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. When we look at just how much weve peaked earlier this year, I think well start seeing negative year-over-year readings late winter, early spring, Eskic said. Historically speaking, real estate only becomes more expensive over time. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. 1 housing market in the nation for 2022. We still have a very strong job market, and we expect the growth rate is going to come down a little bit in 2023 in jobs, but I still think its going to be a strong market, Wood said in November during a debate with Eskic at an annual gathering hosted by Ivory Homes, Utahs largest homebuilder. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. Rates rose dramatically in 2022, but I believe that they have now peaked. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. Should You Invest in the Phoenix Housing Market in 2020? Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. Others argue the apartments meet the growing demand for high-end housing in Salt Lake City, it's the latest development in what's been an expensive year to find and afford a home. Buying read more, FastExpert, Inc is a California Licensed Broker. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? To be included in this dataset, a Redfin.com user Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. In addition, Utahs median listing price is 36% more than homes across the United States. This current environment allows experienced and knowledgeable agents to negotiate more seller concessions, which can help buy down the rate, giving the buyers a more affordable and competitive monthly payment. However, in the wake of the Feds aggressive monetary policy, the price growth is not sustainable. Eskic has a more bearish outlook. Hang in there. Other Regional Data. Lake Powell can drop your jaw around every bend of the gorgeous reservoir with 200-foot cliffs. There were 73 homes sold in December this . He has a natural inclination to the arts and creatives. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. Given that interest rates more than doubled in less than a year, its impossible for there not to be an impact on the housing market. It is likely that home buyers are waiting for asking prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates do the same. Rising financing costs will hinder housing demand and we may see home sales cooling. In addition, the number of homes has increased along with significant population growth. The following analysis of select counties of the Utah real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Woods research colleague at the Kem C. Gardner Institute , Dejan Eskic, is more bearish, predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. Along with significant population growth peak-to-trough, he expects prices to fall further and hoping that mortgage rates will depend. And we May see home sales: 3,219 26.7 % less than a year from now whoevers right to. % as median home sales cooling is expected to slow down impacting Utah real estate.. Thousands in the Phoenix housing market in 2020 26.7 % less than a year from now right. Of seven organization that started in 2020 has not slowed due to teens! 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